If not…

…how reliable is history?

Our pastor made the comment that memory is a function of history?  Is it? 

In his book, Stumbling on Happiness, Daniel Gilbert shares scientific studies of memory that show that, contrary to popular opinion, our memories aren’t full-length features stored in exacting detail.  Instead they are more like holograms where what’s stored are the key elements of the story.  The details get filled in as we recall the episode.

Professor Gilbert goes on to say that “the least likely experience” is often the “most likely memory.”  Why is that?  Because the least likely experiences trigger emotional reactions.  Indeed, it’s the emotional reactions that we have to the situations we face that determine what memories we retain.

If you doubt that think of your last trip to the grocery store.  Was it memorable?  If not, there were no surprises; nothing that triggered an emotional reaction.  Conversely, if it was memorable, it’s likely that someone allowed you to go ahead of him in the checkout line, shared a kind word with you or raced to get ahead of you in line.  Each of these actions triggers an emotional response that forms a memory.

Why is this important?  Because, as Professor Gilbert notes, this natural tendency can “wreak havoc with our ability to predict future experiences.”  If our primary recall is of unusual experiences, how accurate is our historical perspective?  How well can we predict future outcomes if we’re focused on the least likely results?

It’s counter-intuitive, but memory is not an accurate historical perspective.  That’s why, when predicting an outcome, it’s wise to recall:

1. The last relevant experience you had
2. What emotions were triggered during that experience
3. Whether this was an isolated instance among many other similar, yet less memorable, experiences

Then ask yourself, “Is this memory an accurate predictor of what I can expect?”  This simple approach will help you avoid creating unrealistic expectations and improve the historical accuracy of your memory. 

The 7 Steps to Becoming INVALUABLE program I offer is designed to help you see more effective ways of doing business – ways that dramatically improve your bottom line while making your life easier.  In today’s blog I used Step 3, Suspend Judgment, to show you that emotions trigger memories and influence our expectations for the future. Then I used Step 1, Contributory Negligence, to demonstrate how we contribute to the outcomes we get – favorable or unfavorable – by our penchant for using “least likely experiences” to predict the future.  Finally I used Step 5, Contrarian Mindset, to show you how to overcome this natural tendency.  For more information on the 7 Steps to Becoming INVALUABLE visit www.furtwengler.com/theinvaluableleader/

Please share your experiences and wisdom with Invaluable Leader readers by posting your comments.  If there are topics you’d like me to address, please send me an email at dale@furtwengler.com.